Wednesday, September 7, 2011

TF2 Trading #3 Price Check!

Where would you guess the majority of my time is spent? Banning forum trolls? Negatory. Calling down fire and brimstone on scammers? Nope. Actually doing some buying/selling of my own? Not even close, son!

The answer is what's called a price check. That's when someone asks you how much their Ghastly Gibus is worth, and you have the sad fortune of informing them they won't be able to sell it for a Burning Flames Kabuto.

Well, fine sirs (and ladies), I am here to help you gain confidence in your own value estimation. With some practice, you can happily know the value of your items, and I can happily get back to calling down more fire and brimstone.

In my last post I talked about how supply and demand determines values in TF2 trading. But how do you figure out exactly how much you should trade your item for?

There are a number of sites to give you info, but I find it's best to get a ballpark with simple reasoning, then use those sites to help you nail down your estimate. I will list them here as I go.

Ghastly(ier) Gibus
What we probably know off the top of our head:
  • Supply
    • Seems like everyone has it
    • Easy achievement item in TF2
    • Doesn't cost anything to get
  • Demand
    • Haven't ever heard anyone say they wish they had it
    • A lot of people will trade ~1 refined to for a random hat to craft with another hat with the hope of getting something better, but this can't even be crafted
Estimation based on above info: 1.5 reclaimed (half a refined)

What we could find out with a little work:
  • TF2Stats.net hat lists -- this is a great resource for seeing commonality of hats -- in this cast, 91% of people own a Gibus of some kind
  • TF2Items.com trading site stats -- this is a cool place to see the trending top few hats being bought/sold -- in this case, the gibus is the 4th most common hat people want to sell (i.e. don't want)
  • TF2TP.com wishlist search -- this is THE most useful place to find what people are trading items for, and how much people are offering for items -- in this case, there's a number of people trying to sell the gibus for 1 reclaimed, and not many buyers
Final approximated price: 2 scrap to 1 reclaimed

Okay, that was easy. Let's pick a hard one.

Unusual Killer's Kabuto with Burning Flames
What we probably know off the top of our head:
  • Supply
    • It's very rare to see someone with an unusual
    • Unusuals only come from crates
    • There's a 1% chance of getting an unusual in a crate
    • Keys cost $2.50 if I buy them from the store, so unboxing a random unusual would cost $250 on average
    • Not that many people open a lot of crates
  • Demand
    • Everyone I know wishes they had an unusual
    • The Soldier one of the most popular classes
    • The Kabuto is one of the most popular Soldier Hats
    • Burning Flames is one of the most popular effects
Estimation based on above info: $500

What we could find out with a little work:
  • UHatSearch.appspot.com unusual list -- this site isn't exact, but it's pretty nifty for getting a general idea of unusual rarities -- in this case, there are about 15,000 unusual hats, of which 130 are Killer's Kabutos
  • TF2Items.com unusual search -- this site is much more accurate when looking to see just how many unusuals with a particular effect there are -- in this case, there are only about 8 burning flames Killer's Kabutos
  • SourceOP.com TF2 subforms and UnusualTradingCommunity.com -- running searches here are THE most useful places to find what people are trading high-value items for -- in this case, the last burning kabuto sold for around $800 (link for proof)
Final approximated price: $700-900.

The processes I used here to price check these two items are very similar to what I use to price check items when people ask me, or when I need to know for my own trading. From experience, I can know how certain items usually trend, how easy items are to sell for certain prices, etc, but there's no secret sauce. If you follow the above guidelines and use these resources, you'll soon be totally confident in your values.

TF2 Trading #2: What determines prices?

I've had people ask me before "Who sets the item prices?" I usually look confused for a moment, then inform them that no one does. Which usually makes them look equally confused. I'm told my attempts to explain economics generally doesn't improve the situation either.

In reality though, TF2 is no different than the free market in the real world -- supply and demand. Another way to word that would be availability and desirability. But that's a little too simplistic. So what exactly are the factors that make up "supply/availability" and what exactly constitutes "demand/desirability"?

TF2 Supply of <Your Item Here> is influenced by
  • Number of <your item here> in the game
  • Speed at which more <your item here> will come into the game
  • Cost of getting <your item here> outside of trading -- e.g. the Mann Co Store, pre-ordering another game, opening a crate, or some other non-trading venue
  • Likelihood of Robin Walker deciding to celebrate National Aboriginal <Your Item Here> Day and giving everyone <your item here>
  • Likelihood of Robin Walker being in a bad mood and deleting everyone's <your item here>

TF2 Demand of <Your Item Here> is influenced by
  • Number of people who want <your item here>
  • Number of people who already have <your item here>
  • How badly people want <your item here>
  • Likelihood of Robin Walker announcing that <Your Item Here> is [Totally Awesome | Totally Sucks]

Fortunately for us, Robin Walker is pretty passive, so we don't have to worry about him much. Those other factors matter a lot though.

Let's take some examples here using just our brains and the above principles.

Which Is More Valuable: A Crate or a Weapon?
A weapon: Almost no one has keys, so those crates are just taking up space. With the exception of the first day or so that new crates are released, no one wants crates. With a weapon, at least you can smelt it into metal.

Which Is More Valuable: Drably Olive paint or White (abundance of tinge) paint?
White: White looks great on a lot of hats so lots of people want it, whereas olive looks not so good, so rarely anyone uses it.

Which Is More Valuable: Vintage Killer's Kabuto or Non-Vintage Killer's Kabuto?
The vintage kabuto: There's fewer of them, there will never be any more, and people want them because owning vintage makes you look more experienced (or so I've been told).

Which Is More Valuable: Stormy Storm Hustler's Hallmark or Circling Peace Sign Hustler's Hallmark
The Stormy Storm: It's a brand new effect, so there's fewer of them and there's a novelty of owning one of the latest and coolest effects.

Which Is More Valuable $1.50 USD or a Mann Co Crate Key?
The Key: If I was able to sell the key for $2 to someone who wanted to open a crate, I'd be making 50 cents, and he'd be saving 50 cents over buying it from the store.

Just like a real economy, supply/demand really do determine prices in TF2. There really isn't a magic guy sitting behind the scenes making up values after all!

Sunday, September 4, 2011

TF2 Trading #1: Is it worth my time?

Topic #1 in a series on TF2 Trading

To anyone who trades in TF2, this may seem like a silly question, but to a lot of people, it's totally valid.

Some people think the idea of trading is boring, scary, confusing, would take too much time, and/or just don't care enough about getting items in TF2. That's totally valid.

But there's some good reasons why you might want to take the dive too.

First, it would take a really long time to wait for all the items to drop. Each drop is random -- it's just as likely to be an item you already have as an item you don't.

Second, trading with other players is always cheaper than crafting. Let's say you want weapon X, which costs a reclaimed (6 weapons) to craft. Let's say someone else got that as an extra drop. If they can trade that to you for between 2-5 of your weapons, you're both winning.

Third, buying from other players is always cheaper than the Mann Co Store. Far cheaper, in fact. The store prices seem...well, let's just say random. Right now, players buy/sell refined for about $1 each, and will trade, say, an Ol' Snaggletooth for about 2-3 refined. The Snaggle $7.50 in the store, and isn't even tradeable when you buy it. Similar case with Keys -- they are about $2.50 in the store, and players will sell them for about $2.

Fourth, some items are unavailable in the store or via drops. Unusuals and Strange weapons are only available from crates (and are random), vintage and promotional items cannot be purchased, and some colors of paint are only available through random drops.

Finally, you may have some items that are quite valuable in your backpack, that other people would pay quite a bit for (I'll talk about those later).

So the answer is yes! If there's an item you want, or don't need in TF2, it's always worth it to trade it!

UTC Logo Competition

In addition to the Unusual Update Competition, UTC is also running a competition for it's new logo. The one we have right now is just a placeholder.

There's only a couple days left to enter, so show off your creative ability and submit your design here. The technical specifications for sizes, etc. are listed there for you.

UTC Unusual Update Competition

UTC is running a competition to create the most unusually awesome ideas of new hats, weapons, and maps!

You don't even have to be a modeler or artist to participate -- the best ideas will be voted upon and the artists (which could also be you) will get to work making the best ones a reality.

For example, my personal idea is for a 1940s-style diving helmet. Would be super awesome with the new bubbles effect!

Submit your ideas at the UTC subforum here.

Sunday at 6pm CST: Appearance on Control Point Podcast

The Control Point Podcast is having me as a guest on their upcoming show this week.

www.controlpointpodcast.com

You can watch it live on Sunday, around 6PM CST at deadworkers.com/live, or you can listen to the podcast released every wednesday on iTunes and their website.

Topics
  • Is trading worth my time? 
  • What determines prices?
  • You mean PEOPLE spend REAL MONEY on this game?!??! 
  • But...I don’t want to spend real money! 
  • How do I find someone who wants what I have, or who has what I want? 
  • Is there anything valuable in my backpack? 
  • How do I get an unusual hat? 
  • Why would someone ever try to scam me? 
  • What are common scam tactics and how can I defend myself? 
  • Help, I’ve been scammed! 
  • UTC Announcements

Who is Commander Schwegs?

I really, really love TF2! In fact, I've played over 2,500 hours!

I've been an admin for many TF2 servers, both playing servers and trading servers, and I also participate in a competitive clan. When I'm not busy doing that, you can usually find me inventing new ways to (lovingly) pwn n00bs on a 2fort server ;).

Helping people is my hobby -- I have spent hundreds of hours helping people safely conduct item-for-item and item-for-money trades (totaling approximately $50,000 USD) since December 2010.

UHC/UTC admins along with SOP-TS members have middlemanned thousands of trades, totaling est. $5 Million USD. UHC admins also helped raise well over $3,000 USD in donations for Japanese tsunami relief, and have been recognized on the Valve blog and via community weapons.

Experience
Useful Links

Why hello!

Here I will be sharing my brilliant, thought-provoking, and possibly tear-jerking insights regarding TF2 -- particularly trading, admin'ing, fighting scammers, and other areas in which I spend a lot of my free time. Oh, and possibly some stuff related to that weird mod I see every once in a while called "playing the game itself".

Caution: May include sarcasm.

...

^ That was sarcasm. ;)